Today’s most cutting-edge innovations—designed for a diverse range of applications—also carry the potential to revolutionize tomorrow’s military capabilities. And they’re not the stuff of science fiction. Wars of the not-so-distant future will undoubtedly be fought using nanotechnology, robotics, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, neuroscience and information in ways most of us can’t begin to fathom.
This unknown frightens many people, including our military leaders.
“Surprise is what keeps me up at night,” once said now retired Air Force Gen. Robert Kehler when he was in charge of the U.S. Strategic Command. The threat of disruptive technologies are of constant concern for our military leaders, and Kehler acknowledged there’s a fair amount of uncertainty on how to assess and address such potential perils to the U.S.
Some top policymakers and military minds have argued that today’s groundbreaking scientific developments could pose a greater risk to humanity and the fate of our planet than nuclear weapons. Whether or not you believe in such doomsday scenarios, the truth is these yet-unknown technologies could, at the very least, radically shift the balance of power among nations and factions. (Some of those shifts may be in our favor, but others may not be.)
However, the notion that dangerous new technologies alone can determine the outbreak or outcome of conflict, or even that they’re the most important factor, is shortsighted.
After all, the wars of the last decade should remind us that co-option of existing, broadly available commercial technologies—for example, cellphone-activated IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan—may actually present the most significant operational threat at a given point in time. Yet to deny or dismiss the role of groundbreaking scientific and technological innovations in affecting the outcome (as well as outbreak) of war is also perilous.
In this global information age, being the most technologically advanced military power no longer guarantees national security. New developments are more accessible and affordable than ever to a large number of nations, and within the grasp of terrorists and other non-state actors. Advanced science is no longer the domain of the few or even the most powerful. And “owning” a scientific discovery or new military weapon is no longer a protected position, if not outright impossible.
Understanding these changing paradigms, as well as their geopolitical origins and implications, must start with an awareness of the underlying factors at hand—both the technical and non-technical ones. A strong foreign policy constructed from an improved understanding of the relationships between science and security has never been more critical.
The need to bridge gaps between the technical and human domains are increasing rapidly, and the challenges are both organizational and strategic. Most importantly, we need the right people to implement and execute strategic foresight. Otherwise, without strong partnerships and without better analytical tools at our disposal, the U.S. and its allies will continue to struggle with assessing how, when, where and in what form future wars will be fought, as well as preparing for and responding to military aggression.
Margaret Kosal is an assistant professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Tech.
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